In Group F of UEFA Champions League, Barcelona, Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund and Slavia Prague competed against each other. With one match pending for each of the team, it is evident that Barcelona have already qualified, Dortmund and Inter to fight for qualification and Prague don’t have a chance to qualify.
Points Table
Following table shows Group H situation after each team have played five matches.
Prediction for Group F
Following table provide points tally after all matches been played in Group F, and shows Group F winners considering all scenarios.
How the table to be interpreted
- There might be 9 exhaustive situation after last two matches are played.
- Considering all scenario, points table are computed
- Two different concepts are considered. First one involving ‘Bet Belief’, which considers Betting odds for last two matches for probability of win/draw/loss. Second one, considers ‘equal chances’, i.e. there is equal chances for a team to win(33.33%), or draw(33.33%) or loss (33.33%). The second one is far from practical as it does not consider special weightage for a stronger team.
Qualification Chances
| Group H Winners | Bet Belief | Equal Chances |
| Barcelona and Dortmund | 36% | 33.33% |
| Barcelona and Inter/Dortmund* | 46% | 22.22% |
| Barcelona and Inter | 18% | 44.44% |
*Note- Qualification Rules are to be applied to break ties between Chelsea and Valencia, if Situation 3 or Situation 5 or Situation 7 arises. Situation 5 is predictable, and this will see Inter to qualify.
Conclusions
- Barcelona is qualifying as group winner. No result can change that. Inter and Dortmund to fight for the second spot.
- For Situation 3 and 7, which involves either winning or losing of both Dortmund and Inter, Qualification Rule will come into play. Inter have 3 goals advantage now which will be crucial in these situation.
Qualification Rules
If two or more teams are equal on points, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings:
- Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e. head to head results).
- Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e. head to head goal difference).
- Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e head to head goals scored).
- Higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question (i.e head to head away goals).
- Superior goal difference from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
- Higher number of goals scored from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
- Higher number of away goals scored from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
- Higher number of wins from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
- Higher number of away wins from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
- Lower number of disciplinary points received from ALL group matches played among the teams in question.
- Higher UEFA Club Coefficient.
- Champions League, Group-H Prediction: Ajax, Chelsea, Valencia can qualify
- Champions League, Group-E Prediction: Liverpool, Napoli, Red Bull can qualify
- Champions League, Group-F Prediction: Barca, Inter, Dortmund can qualify
