- Croatia have already qualified from Group-D
- Matches on today, to decide the second team from Group-D
- Argentina, Nigeria and Iceland have realistic chances to move to next round
- ‘Betting Belief’ sees Argentina have better chance to qualify, compared to Nigeria or Iceland
Croatia is at top of the table with six points, whereas Nigeria is at second spot with three points. Argentina and Iceland both are with 1 point each, but Iceland has better goal difference.
Argentina is at bottom of the table. But Argentina is expected to turn the tide as per betting market. For Argentina-Vs-Nigeria match, odds placed for Argentina, draw and Nigeria are 1.53, 4.50 and 6.50. People are showing enormous confidence in Messi-led team. For Croatia-Vs-Iceland, odds for Croatia win, draw and Iceland win, are 2.25, 3.40 and 3.50 respectively.
If we consider betting bias or belief, Argentina has 55% chances to qualify, whereas Nigeria and Iceland have 33% and 12% chances.
If we remove bias/belief from the equation, considering each of the outcome equally likely, Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland have 62%, 27% and 11% chances .
Croatia is likely to check their bench in today’s match against Iceland. So there will be changes in starting eleven. Considering their bench strength, that should not affect the outcome of the match.
If Nigeria wins, they will qualify straight away. Situation for Argentina and Iceland are not same. Even if they win, they have to depend on the result from other match.
In case of points tie, FIFA has laid down tie-breaking process to be followed in this World Cup, to distinctly rank each of the four teams in Group-D.
HOW THE TEAMS WILL BE RANKED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE GROUPS
1. Points obtained in all group matches
2. Goal difference in all group matches
3. Goals scored in all group matches
4. Points obtained in matches between tied teams
5. Goal difference in matches between tied teams
6. Goals scored in matches between tied teams
7. Fair play points system where the team with the most minus points finishing lower
The fair play points are calculated as follows: yellow card (-1), indirect red through second yellow (-3), straight red card (-4). This is most likely only to come into play in two-team ties and even then is unlikely – but will be used if England and Belgium draw tonight.
8. Drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee
