- France has already qualified for last-16.
- Peru will face Australia today to restore pride.
- As per ‘Betting Belief’, Denmark and Australia have 92% and 8% chances respectively.
- FIFA has put in place seven tie-breakers for distinct ranking of four teams in a group
France is at the top of the Group-B table with 6 points, with Denmark at second spot with four points. Australia is at third spot with one point.
Denmark has to win or hold France for a draw to qualify to Round of 16. Australia is facing Peru in a must-win match. Moreover, Socceroos have to depend on France to win against Denmark. For all other scenarios, France and Denmark will be group winners from Group-C.
The betting odds for the match between, France vs Denmark are – 2.15 for France, 2.75 for draw and 5.00 for Denmark. The odds for Australia-vs-Peru match, are 3.10, 3.50 and 2.37 respectively. If we consider this belief on Teams to predict their chances to qualify, it shows Denmark and Australia have 92% and 8% chances to qualify into next round.
Considering ‘Equal Chances’ to wins for each teams or draw, will not change the overall chances for Denmark or Australia to qualify. The later does not consider expert bias for better team.
The only scenario where Australia could qualify, would see them on points tie with Denmark, with each of them with 4 points each. Such a scenario, if faced, FIFA will call for sequential process to break the tie and decide distinct group ranking.
HOW THE TEAMS WILL BE RANKED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE GROUPS
1. Points obtained in all group matches
2. Goal difference in all group matches
3. Goals scored in all group matches
4. Points obtained in matches between tied teams
5. Goal difference in matches between tied teams
6. Goals scored in matches between tied teams
7. Fair play points system where the team with the most minus points finishing lower
The fair play points are calculated as follows: yellow card (-1), indirect red through second yellow (-3), straight red card (-4). This is most likely only to come into play in two-team ties and even then is unlikely – but will be used if England and Belgium draw tonight.
8. Drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee
